June numbers are in...

And she was a big'uns sales wise... highest June tally on record, and third highest monthly at least as far back as I have stats for. So there is no arguing buyers were out in full force.

While increasing month-over-month sales are the norm during the spring, it should be noted that the gains seen here go well beyond expected seasonality. Over the last six months we've went from well below seasonal sales, to well above. That interest rates dropped to all time lows over this period is quite likely no small coincidence, and convinced the all important first-time-buyers to make the plunge.

Inventory dropped a fair bit, which is understandable considering sales were very strong but prices haven't shot up much... if prices weren't high enough to bring out the spec sellers earlier, they have no reason to change now.

Prices crept up a bit too as would be expected. Curiously the SFH median was up the most month-over-month, while the averages were only up 0.4-1% (year-over-year everything is obviously still down). Normally one would expect the averages to be the more reactive, but perhaps this is suggesting increased activity at the lower price levels... which are the biggest trouble spot for the market as there had been a great deal of speculation and overbuilding at those levels during the boom.

No surprise absorption rate is down as sales are up and inventory down. Still a tad high by historical measures even with record sales, so obviously there is a lot of inventory out there yet, not even figuring in the dreaded shadow inventory.

So, it'll be an interesting summer and fall to fallow the market. Will interest rates go up? Will prices hold? Will inventory erode? Will Kevin ever have free time again and get back to blogging more? In any case, it's fascinating to watch... well, other then perhaps that last one.

Here are the hard numbers as always,

Sales = 2,552
Since two years ago = +15.8% (+349)
Since one year ago = +37.8% (+700)
Since last month = +18.1% (+391)

Active Listings = 6,785
Since two years ago = +6.6% (+418)
Since one year ago = -37.3% (-4,032)
Since last month = -9.0% (-668)

Single Family Homes Median= $349,500
Since peak (May '07) = -12.6% (-$50,500)
Since one year ago = -4.2% (-$15,500)
Since six months ago = +5.9% (+$19,500)
Since last month = +2.0% (+$7,000)

Residential Average = $328,229
Since peak (July '07) = -7.4% (-$26,419)
Since one year ago = -3.8% (-$13,077)
Since six months ago = +405% (+$17,325)
Since last month = +0.6% (+$1,967)

Single Family Homes Average = $369,859
Since peak (May '07) = -13.2% (-$56,169)
Since one year ago = -3.0% (-$11,525)
Since six months ago = +5.1% (+$17,989)
Since last month = +0.6% (+$2,817)

Condo Average = $247,071
Since peak (July '07) = -9.1% (-$24,837)
Since one year ago = -5.8% (-$15,294)
Since six months ago = +5.5% (+$12,785)
Since last month = +1.0% (+$2,337)

Townhome Average= $291,071
Since peak (Oct '07) = -20.9% (-$76,893)
Since one year ago = -7.0% (-$21,952)
Since six months ago = -0.6% (-$1,822)
Since last month = +0.4% (-$1,117)