Decline Since Peak Eh!

As promised, here is something of a follow up to yesterdays price index entry. This time around we're going to look at how the prices have fallen in all those cities from their respective peaks, where they are now, and how long it has been.

In this case, 100 is now equal to the peak price each city, and it's fairly straight forward from there. For example, if the point is at 90, that means the price is 90% of its peak value, or down 10%... so on and so forth. So without further ado, here's the goods (again, you can click on the chart for a larger version)...

These numbers are the most recent available, at least November, and December where available (when the December numbers are available across the board I'll update the chart).

As you can see from this series, Vancouver has fallen hard and fast, down over 15% in just 8 months. Winnipeg is hot on their heels, down over 12% in just 6 months. Then there is Toronto and Regina down about 9% and 8% respectively in the last 8 months.

Noticeably, Edmonton and Calgary both peaked well before the rest (Summer '07), eight or nine months before the anyone else. Despite small rebounds in the spring they have both since continued their downward trend, now both down over 12% a piece.

At the other end of things, Ottawa and Montreal topped out just this past summer. You will also recall they were two markets with the most gradual growth in that previous post, so didn't experience as distinct a bubble. So, while they will almost certainly see further declines in light of the economic situation, their markets appear more balanced then most of the comparison others, particularly those in the West. You can already see for where they are in the timeline, they have weathered better then the six other cities.

For those curious, here are the prices at which each market topped out at:

Vancouver - $771,321
Calgary - $436,739
Toronto - $398,687
Edmonton - $354,718
Ottawa - $298,336
Montreal - $270,412
Regina - $248,039
Winnipeg - $204,412

So, looking at that, it really goes without saying that all declines are not equal when it comes to real dollars... especially in Vancouver, where a 10% loss there, would equal an 18% one in Calgary, 29% in Montreal, or 38% in Winnipeg. So just keep in mind, all those plot points are relative.

That Vancouver has fallen so far, so fast and has by far the most to lose dollar wise, tells you that those that bought at the peak there are feeling it two or three times over again what everyone else is. So even though they may not have had as extreme a bubble as Edmonton had, the losses that will be suffered will be far worse.