October numbers are in....

The October resale numbers were released today, and it was a much different story then we've been hearing about the last few months, and even what happened in Calgary last month. While sales were down noticeably from September (as is normally expected given real estates seasonality), they were still very strong for October... yet prices were down in a big way.

In all categories prices fell, and rather significantly for month-over-month movements. Condo's, single-family-homes and the residential averages were all down about $8,000 from September (3.2%, 2.2% and 2.5% respectively), and the single-family-home median was down $3,900 (1.1%).

An unusual softening given relatively strong sales, but as I've hypothesized in the last few months, this could be further evidence of the return of high levels of speculation. As they typically buy at the low end of the market, that would explain the strong sales and movement of price... or could just be wishful thinking.

Curious that Edmonton and Calgary tend to mirror each other, yet Edmonton had a significant drop while Calgary had increases. Could just be an aberration, or we could see one eventually follow the other.

As previously mentioned, sales were down month-over-month (-9.9%), but strong for this time of year (1,535). Inventory also continued it's typical autumn decline, and now sit at 5,530. Finally absorption rate stayed about the same at 3.6, as sales and inventory fell off at similar clips.

As always, here are the hard goods (note, this will be the last month townhomes are included. They make up such a tiny portion of the market and are so frequently lumped in with condos there isn't much point including them, but if so included you can still look them up in the EREB releases):

Sales = 1,530
Since two years ago = +20.3% (+259)
Since one year ago = +22.7% (+284)
Since last month = -9.9% (-169)

Active Listings = 5,530
Since two years ago = -42.3% (-4,047)
Since one year ago = -35.1% (-2,995)
Since last month = -8.3% (-502)

Single Family Homes Median= $346,000
Since peak (May '07) = -13.5% (-$54,000)
Since one year ago = +0.9% (+$3,250)
Since six months ago = +2.7% (+$9,000)
Since last month = -1.1% (-$3,900)

Residential Average = $318,969
Since peak (July '07) = -10.1% (-$35,749)
Since one year ago = +0.4% (+$1,185)
Since six months ago = +2.2% (+$6,842)
Since last month = -2.5% (-$8,266)

Single Family Homes Average = $363,694
Since peak (May '07) = -14.6% (-$62,334)
Since one year ago = +0.1% (+$420)
Since six months ago = +2.9% (+$10,308)
Since last month = -2.2% (-$8,253)

Condo Average = $237,601
Since peak (July '07) = -12.6% (-$34,307)
Since one year ago = +0.0% (+$11)
Since six months ago = +0.7% (+$1,581)
Since last month = -3.2% (-$7,945)

Townhome Average = $299,843
Since peak (Oct '07) = -18.5% (-$68,121)
Since one year ago = -2.4% (-$7,335)
Since six months ago = +3.0% (+$8,775)
Since last month = -0.0% (-$121)