Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Leading the nation... at falling behind

The latest mortgage arrears numbers were released today, and once again they are up. Through August the rate sits at 0.65%... getting ever closer to the modern day high of 0.69% from February 1997. As these numbers are two months old now, in all likelihood we're already at or past that mark now, but we won't know for sure until the numbers are officially out... so for now:

Alberta Mortgage Arrears
Month-over-month the number was up from 0.62% in July, and year-over-year from 0.30% last August. Alberta continues to widen it's lead in regards to highest rate in the nation, as the month-over-month increases too have been the largest in the country.

As we can see, we're also well above the long-term average and showing no sign of slowing... and with the interest rate shock no doubt awaiting those that bought into the market at the recent all-time low rates, we haven't seen anything yet.

Western Canada Mortgage Arrears
Haven't graphed out the national numbers in awhile, so figured it'd be a good time to do that again. Here are the western provinces. They've all been tracking up this year, no surprise given the recession, but none nearly to the degree Alberta has... though I have a hunch B.C. soon will be charting a very similar path as their bubble deflates, and ultimately will could even dwarf us.

Saskatchewan and Manitoba enjoy the opposite end of the spectrum with by far the lowest rates in the country, 0.25% and 0.27% respectively. Saskatchewan could later has issues as they had a bit of a bubble form there last year, so time will tell for them, but Manitoba appears relatively safe as their market has remained very stable.

Eastern Canada Mortgage Arrears
Now the east, and national average for good measure. They have actually all been fairly stable the last six months, creeping up just slightly. Quebec has held their 0.35% rate for the fifth consecutive month, while Ontario held at 0.43 for the fourth straight month. The Atlantic region also held from July at 0.48%.

Nationally, the rate continues it's slow steady climb, now at 0.43%... up from 0.42% in July, 0.38% six months ago, and 0.28% a year ago. Largely due to increases in Alberta and BC, though Ontario was also accelerating last year.